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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 03/24 11:51
Cattle Contracts Trade Higher Monday Morning Thanks to a Bullish Cattle on
Feed Report
The livestock complex is trading mixed, with the cattle contracts finding
support from last week's incredible rally in the fed cash cattle market and the
Cattle on Feed report.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle contracts are trading
higher while the lean hog complex trades slightly lower. A big line item this
week will be the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report that's set to be released on
Thursday, March 27. May corn is up 1 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is
down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 535.72 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Following Friday's lower close, the live cattle complex is back to rallying,
but the market doesn't seem confident in breaking through the market's high,
which was established last week in the June contract at $205. Today's higher
tone likely stems from the fact that Friday's Cattle on Feed report was indeed
bullish, but traders are now seeming to look to the market's fundamentals to
dictate whether or not higher prices are in store for the market this week.
April live cattle are up $0.92 at $207.87, June live cattle are up $1.52 at
$204.30 and August live cattle are up $1.67 at $201.02.
Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $210, which is $7.00 higher
than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded
at mostly $335, which is $10.00 higher than the previous week's weighted
average. Depending on where the week's weighted averages land, it's likely that
these prices mark new all-time highs in both of the regions. Last week's
negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 94,956 head. Of that, 88% (83,685 head)
were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 12% (11,271
head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.13 ($325.32) and select up $2.16
($311.78), with a movement of 42 loads (22.96 loads of choice, 6.46 loads of
select, 6.34 loads of trim and 6.32 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Following in line with the live cattle market's direction, the feeder cattle
complex is also trading higher. April feeders are up $2.02 at $287.00, May
feeders are up $1.60 at $286.70 and August feeders are up $1.97 at $290.80. The
market is fearing some resistance pressure, but if fundamental support proves
to be ample again this week, there's always the chance that traders could push
the market higher again this week.
LEAN HOGS:
Even though the lean hog complex closed higher Friday afternoon, the market
is back to trading lower as it waits to see what demand is going to amount to
this week. And yes, Pork cutout values are higher this morning, but traders are
going to need to see more followed-through support than one day's trade before
they'll put much credence in the demand situation. Do note that the Quarterly
Hogs and Pigs Report will be released this upcoming Thursday. April lean hogs
are down $0.27 at $85.65, June lean hogs are down $1.42 at $96.05 and July lean
hogs are down $1.67 at $97.05.
The projected lean hog index for 3/21/2025 is down $0.09 at $88.79, and the
actual index for 3/20/2025 is down $0.32 at $88.88. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.23, with a weighted average price of
$88.03, ranging from $86.00 to $90.00 on 2,118 head and a five-day rolling
average of $89.37. Pork cutouts total 153.90 loads, with 132.55 loads of pork
cuts and 21.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.53, $98.39.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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