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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 11/29 11:40
Cattle Continue to Trend Higher While Hogs Slip Lower
A single bid of $191 has been renewed in Nebraska, but at this point, it's
looking like the bulk of this week's trade is done with.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into
Friday's noon hour as the market has seen tremendous fundamental support this
past week. The lean hog complex isn't as lucky today as its nearby contracts
are trading lower. No new cash cattle trade has been noted at this point, but a
bid of $191 has been renewed in Nebraska. March corn is up 4 1/4 cents per
bushel and January soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
is up 321.50 points
Friday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 4,800 mt for 2024
-- a marketing year low -- were down 66% from the previous week and 61% from
the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were China (1,500 mt),
Mexico (800 mt) and Japan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 17,200 mt for 2024 were
down 5% from the previous week, but up 1% from the prior 4-week average. The
three primary buyers were Mexico (8,300 mt), Japan (2,100 mt) and Colombia
(1,900 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex continues to trade higher as the market is well
supported by traders in the technical sense, and fundamentally through the cash
cattle market's strong performance this week. Holiday weeks are always a gamble
as packers are either nonchalant in the marketplace not seeming to need many
cattle on a holiday-shortened kill week, or they're aggressive like they had to
be this week. But given that this week's cash cattle trade ranged anywhere from
$3.00 to $5.00 higher -- it's safe to say that packers are short bought and
thankfully feedlot managers were awake behind the wheel and didn't miss out on
an opportunity to advance the market even though they had to juggle the
Thanksgiving holiday midweek. December live cattle are up $0.32 at $188.32,
February live cattle are up $0.35 at $188.95 and April live cattle are up $0.67
at $191.10. So far this week, Southern live cattle were sold for mostly $190,
which is $3.00 to $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern
dressed cattle sold for mostly $295, which is $5.00 higher than last week's
weighted average. Bids of $191 have surfaced again in Nebraska, but no new
sales have been reported. Some clean-up trade could develop ahead of today's
close, but it looks like the bulk of this week's trade is done with.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.04 ($311.22) and select up $1.60
($275.90) with a movement of 39 loads (27.50 loads of choice, 4.88 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 6.53 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though the nearby corn contracts are trading $0.03 to $0.05 higher, the
feeder cattle market doesn't currently seem to have a care in the world as
support is plentiful for the market right now. Between the announcement earlier
this week that Mexican cattle imports would be restricted because of the
detection of New World screwworm found in a cow in Southern Mexico, the
market's support has been widespread as traders, cattlemen and everyone in
between seem to be acknowledging the market's current power and strength.
January feeders are up $1.07 at $259.85, March feeders are up $1.72 at $259.02
and April feeders are up $1.60 at $260.00.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex isn't seeing the support it would like as packers are
appearing to be done buying in the cash hog market this week, and although
morning pork cutout values are up slightly, traders aren't willing to put much
clout in that factor as prices were stressed earlier this week. Not to mention,
most of the nearby contracts ran to new contract highs earlier this week and so
for the market to find itself in a position where the nearby contracts are
venturing lower after a holiday isn't that surprising. December lean hogs are
down $0.47 at $81.92, February lean hogs are down $1.52 at $86.40 and April
lean hogs are down $0.80 at $90.82.
The projected lean hog index for 11/27/2024 is down $0.30 at $85.21, and the
actual index for 11/26/2024 is down $0.39 at $85.51. Hog prices are lower on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.92 with a weighted average price
of $83.44, ranging from $80.00 to $88.00 on 1,119 head and a five-day rolling
average of $86.85. Pork cutouts total 145.90 loads with 128.03 loads of pork
cuts and 17.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.85, $89.79.
**
As a new administration prepares to take office, farmers are preparing for
the next growing season. In this year's DTN Ag Summit, we'll examine the state
of national farm policy, including timing on a farm bill, makeup of the ag
committees and new leadership at USDA. A few of the winners of this year's
America's Best Farmers and Ranchers award share what they've learned from
selling directly to consumers, and the DTN markets and weather team will offer
their perspective on what's in store for 2025.
The DTN Ag Summit is scheduled for Dec. 5-6, 2024. Use this link to sign up:
https://dtn.link/DTNAgSummit2024
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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