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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 09/25 06:37
Initial Weakness in Cattle Futures Possible
Cattle futures had a strong Friday, moving higher ahead of the Cattle on
Feed report. Cash cattle prices remained steady for the week. The Cattle on
Feed report was neutral to slightly negative. Hogs could not find support as
further liquidation unfolded. Futures prices may retest technical support from
late August.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $222.87 +$1.30*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Lower Lean Equiv: $104.34 -$1.52**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.) ** based on formula estimating lean
hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle futures reflected steady cash with October up $0.15 and December down
$.47 for the week. The Cattle on Feed report showed on-feed numbers at 98% of a
year ago. Placements were 95% and marketings were at 94%. This is supportive to
the market as lower numbers indicated continued tightness of cattle numbers.
However, the numbers being slightly higher than the trade estimate for
placements with slightly lower marketings could result in more aggressive
selling of futures Monday. The selling may be short-lived as traders react to
the numbers, but overall, the report was friendly in the larger picture as
cattle numbers remain below a year ago. Boxed beef prices were higher with
choice up $1.40 and select up $1.43. The Commitment of Traders report showed
funds adding 2,680 long futures positions bringing their net-long total to
102,372 contracts. Feeder cattle were trimmed 329 contracts, reducing their
net-long positions to 15,643 contracts.
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