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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/06 10:59

   Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Mixed

   Corn futures are 1 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
5 to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 11 cents lower to 2 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 1 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
5 to 8 cents higher; wheat futures are 11 cents lower to 2 cents higher. The 
U.S. stock market is mixed with the S&P up 5 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 
20 points higher. Interest rate products are mostly weaker. Energies are flat 
with crude .10 lower and natural gas up .03. Livestock trade is stronger with 
hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 1.00.


   Corn futures are 1 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade holding the upper 
end of the range. Firmer spread action should start after conditions declined 
on the weekly USDA report and with short-term forecasts improved for the east. 
Ethanol margins will be squeezed a little if corn strength holds with unleaded 
strength still fleeting. Basis continues to hold a softer tone with better 
movement possibilities as fieldwork wraps up with most rains expected to stay 
in the Western Corn Belt until the front passes this weekend. The second crop 
in Brazil continues to head toward the homestretch with some recent rains, and 
a cold front that could hurt some of the last-planted corn. Weekly crop 
progress showed corn rated good to excellent 5 percentage points lower at 64%, 
and poor to very poor unchanged at 6%. Planting was pegged at 96% versus 91% on 
average; emergence 85% versus 77% on average. On the July chart we have support 
at the 20-day moving average at $5.85 with trade pressing back toward the 
recent high at $6.14.


   Soybean futures are 5 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade pushing into 
nearby resistance levels. Oil is taking the lead in the product complex, but we 
have faded off the day highs. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower and oil is 110 to 
120 points higher. The daily wire showed some life with 165,000 metric tons 
(mt) of old crop sold to Spain for the first old-crop sale in two months. Basis 
will likely remain a little softer with most buyers rolling to the back months. 
Planting should be on the homestretch nationally with the east remaining drier 
short term. The weekly progress report showed the first conditions at 62% good 
to excellent and 7% poor to very poor; planting at 91% versus 76% on average; 
emergence 74% versus 56% on average. July chart support is the lower Bollinger 
Band at $12.79, which we bounced off last week with the 20-day moving average 
at $13.50, which we are just above at midday.


   Wheat futures are 11 cents lower to 2 cents higher with early buying on the 
dam explosion in Ukraine fading. Spread action favors Chicago after the early 
KC test of resistance. Warmer weather may stress spring wheat in the short 
term, but otherwise we are caught up after the slow start. Plains harvest 
should pick up around rains this week as well. There are some concerns with the 
longer-term forecast in Australia as well. The dollar is just off the recent 
highs, with Matif wheat solidly higher as well. Weekly crop progress showed 82% 
headed versus 81% last week; harvested 4%, same as average; 36% rated good to 
excellent, up 2 percentage points on the week; 34% poor to very poor. Spring 
wheat was 93% planted same as average and 76% emerged versus 74% on average, 
with 64% good to excellent, and 2% poor to very poor. On the KC July Chart, the 
$8.00 continues to hold nearby as support, with the 20-day moving average above 
the market at $8.38, which we tested overnight and faded from.


   Join us Friday at 11 a.m. CDT for coverage of the June WASDE report. At 
12:30 p.m., DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman will review details of the report in 
his monthly webinar. You can sign up for that webinar here:

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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